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Greetings all, I have been a long time lurker (since 2010) on the forums and have finally decided to take the plunge into posting something. For my first post I wanted to get some input from the Forums on a question I had about Must Hit By Progressives. I am the furthest thing from an AP.

I like to visit my local casino once a month and plunk away at the slots and maybe play a little Video Poker to switch things up. With that being said, my local casino has some of the Ainsworth Must Hit By Progressive machines (Thunder Cash, Mustang Money, etc.) in the high limit room at the $1 level (Major starts at $9,000 and will hit by $10,000, Minor Starts at $350 and will hit by $500). I have reviewed the great write-up that the Wizard has on calculating the Target Point for when the Major and Minor Progressives would put the machine in +EV territory.

As I said I am the furthest thing from an AP but if in my monthly visit to the Casino I happen to spot one of these machines where the progressive makes it +EV why not throw my money into that. So here is my question - how do you calculate the bankroll required to have a reasonable chance of hitting the progressive (Major or Minor)?

I would like to understand the bankroll necessary to withstand the variance you could experience on these machines while chasing the progressive. It will not change my play but it would be good to understand how to calculate this. As a corollary to this question, if you are chasing one of these progressives what is the best bet level to play at (the machines I reference above have a bet range from $10 - $100 a spin)? My gut tells me the $10 per spin level gives you the best chance to survive the possible variance you would encounter.

I seem to remember a thread from last year that discussed the bankroll calculation issue but I have not been able to track it down. Thanks in advance for responses! Bankroll will depend heavily on (1) your starting point (2) machine settings (Ainsworth $5K/10K machines in the wild have been reported at 85-97%), (3) meter movements, (4) different themes have different variances (and wildly different bonus round variances) (5) whether you play 1-2-3-5-10-15-20 lines (6) whether or not your casino closes overnight.so you might lose the machine when it reopens on the next day Typical meter movements are $667 & $250 to move $1 (Some newer ones have $667 & $222). However, on a $5K Ainsworth, I once saw $2,000 & $667 meters. For repeated play at competitive levels, I recommend $500K for majors, $100K for minors (20X maximum loss on one game). For one try, $50K for major, $15K for minor should be ok 99%+ of the time.

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-> My personal worsts: $35K+ to drop a major, $10K to drop a minor. Theoretically, $10K might only move a major by +$15 ($667 meter), or a minor by +$40 ($250 meter). -> My personal worsts: Twice 10K only moved major +17-22. On a minor, if you play at 490, $2K should be enough for one play. -> At 480, $4K is recommended -> At 470, $5K-6K recommended The most conservative people play $1-3 for multiple days to drop a major (working in teams). The most aggressive person max-bets $100 all the way (A guy we call the 'doctor') Two things to balance: (1) Lowering variance (2) Profit per hour Good luck. If you only want a 'reasonable chance' to drop a major/minor, rather than a 'play to the death' approach.just adjust for the% chance you want.

Thanks, Mamat I appreciate the response. Download free aws d1 1 2010 pdf free. At my local casino Thundercash for example has a meter rate of $10 coin in for a $0.02 increase for the major and a $0.04 increase for the minor. The big variable for me is what the return is set at.

I suspect it is 94% but of course I have no where near enough spins to make that a statistically valid assumption nor am I smart enough to deconstruct it like the Wizard can. That being the case if the minor was sitting at $485 for Thundercash - my coin in required to hit at that level would be $3,750 'playing to the death'. How do you move from the coin-in number to a bankroll? I typically play this machine at $10 a spin (10 lines for $1 per line). If I took 6% of the $3,750 and come up with $250 that just seems too low to account for variance I could experience. Appreciate any additional thoughts. I suspect your local meters are the standard $667 $250.